This opportunity is no longer available.

We are seeking to appoint two postdoctoral research fellows for a 6-month full-time fixed-term period (July–December 2019) to work on an exciting project with SAS and Nationwide.

The successful candidates should have a background in machine learning techniques and credit scoring models.

Informal enquiries about the post may be made to Raffaella Calabrese and Vaishak Belle.

This opportunity is no longer available.

The Business School has an opportunity for an individual with a background in mathematical data science or credit risk modelling to work on an EPSRC-funded project, ‘Optimisation Models for Interpretable Analytics’.

Full details can be found on the University of Edinburgh vacancies website under vacancy reference 047932.

As part of the CRC seminar series, Harald Scheule, currently Professor of Finance at the University of Technology Sydney, visited the Business School to present his recent research to staff, students, and practitioners. This research looked at using transactional (customer payments) data in mortgage risk modelling.

The research analysed the informativeness of non-mortgage bank payment transactions on mortgage default for a major retail bank, which found short-term interest coverage, income changes, home maintenance expenses, and cash withdrawals are strong predictors of future default. The use of transaction data improves model prediction allowing for earlier intervention that can assist consumers and lower bank losses.

Guest editors

Jonathan Crook, Christophe Mues, Tony Bellotti, and Galina Andreeva

Call for papers

Empirical and theoretical developments in credit risk modelling are proceeding at a faster pace than ever before. Alternative variables, new algorithms, new regulatory issues, new types of data and much larger volumes of data are all the subjects of the increasing number of papers in the literature. This special issue of JORS aims to bring together outstanding research in any area of credit risk modelling. Papers are invited on any aspect of credit risk modelling including (but not limited to) the following:

Papers may relate to credit given to any sector of an economy and any type of credit.

All papers will be subject to the usual refereeing process of JORS.

Please Note: Papers presented at the Credit Scoring and Credit Control XVI conference during 27-30 August 2019 at The University of Edinburgh may be submitted. However this is an open call and any papers in the area may be submitted even if they are not presented at the conference.

The Guest editors of this special issue will be: Professor Jonathan Crook (University of Edinburgh), Professor Christophe Mues (University of Southampton), Dr Tony Bellotti (Imperial College) and Dr Galina Andreeva (University of Edinburgh). The closing date for submissions is 17 January 2020 and submission should be made through the JORS website. All papers must comply with the submission requirements of JORS.

JORS Website

Angela De Moraes successfully defended her thesis on the topic of ‘Novel Information in Estimating Loss Given Default in Brazil’, whilst Denys Osipenko successfully defended his thesis on the topic of ‘An investigation into methods of predicting income from credit card holders using panel data’.

Very well done to both!

As part of his visit, he gave a presentation on ‘Market Power, State Intervention and Bank Risk during the Global Financial Crisis in the Euro Area’. The seminar was well attended by practitioners, faculty and students.

A former Lecturer in Business Economics at the Business School, Davide is now a Research Economist at the World Bank’s Development Research Group leading the update of the World Bank – Bank Regulation and Supervision survey. His main research interests lie in banking, focusing on bankruptcy prediction, credit risk, completion and efficiency.

More on Davide's Presentation

As part of the Credit Research Centre Seminar Series, Caterina Liberati visited the Business School on 10 November to give a presentation on ‘Advances in Credit Scoring: Combining performance and interpretation in kernel discriminant analysis’.

Dr Liberati is an Assistant Professor in Statistics for Economics at the University of Milano-Bicocca, and gained her PhD in Statistical Methodology for Scientific Research from the University of Bologna. The presentation was well attended by practitioners and scholars with an interest in credit scoring, and was well received.

The Academy of Social Sciences is the national academy of academics, learned societies and practitioners in the social sciences. Its mission is to promote social science in the UK for the public benefit.

The new Fellows are drawn from academics, practitioners and policymakers across the social sciences. They have been recognised after an extensive peer review process for the excellence and impact of their work through the use of social science for public benefit.

Submission deadline: 15 January 2018

Papers are invited that make original contributions to knowledge in empirical credit risk modelling. Papers presented at the Credit Scoring and Credit Control XV conference may be submitted, but the Special Issue is open to other papers as well.

Full details and submission guidelines are included in the Call for papers.

The group also suggested a soft rather than hard Brexit and restricting lending criteria could improve financial stability.

74% of the 200 credit control specialists questioned at the Business School’s biennial Credit Risk and Credit Scoring Conference said the Bank of England was right to be concerned about increasing levels of UK consumer debt, labelling them a serious problem.

Two thirds (66%) predict another credit crunch is likely to happen by 2022 and more than a third (38%) believe a financial crisis could hit even sooner – within the next three years. The Bank of England announced in July that unsecured consumer credit has risen to £200bn for the first time since 2008.

When asked about Brexit, almost three quarters of the global finance specialists (73%) predict the UK’s departure from the EU will harm consumer and businesses’ ability to obtain credit when they need it. The majority (83%) said the Eurozone will suffer significant aftershocks from Brexit, with 42% reporting these would still be felt beyond 2020.

There is overwhelming support for a soft Brexit as a means of keeping the economy in check: 52% say soft Brexit would improve financial stability in the next 12 months compared to 6% for a hard Brexit.

Professor Jonathan Crook, Director of the Credit Research Centre at University of Edinburgh Business School, said:

"The view of our expert delegation echoes concerns that have been expressed recently by the Bank of England about lenders being complacent about consumer lending levels.

"Having been reluctant to publicly commit to rate rises, it’s unlikely we’ll see any changes this week. But reality may bite sooner than expected if lenders, concerned about a potential rise in customers defaulting, increase interest rates to help off-set the risk.

"All eyes are on Brexit negotiations at the moment as trade talks continue. Moody’s has already warned the UK could be looking at a credit downgrade if negotiations fail to get the right sort of deal. The simple truth is this situation is unprecedented and we need talks to progress further before we can better predict what will happen. For now, the global experts who gathered at the University of Edinburgh last week are clear we’ll be feeling the effects of our departure from the EU for years, perhaps decades, to come."

Should borrowing levels continue unchecked due to ultra-low rates, the vast majority of the experts (91%) expect an increase in the rate of UK consumers defaulting on repayments. 61% said tightening lending criteria would shore up financial stability over the next year.

The situation appears to be more pronounced in Britain than overseas, with UK credit experts much more concerned about how easy it is to obtain credit in their own country compared to their overseas counterparts: 46% think credit is too easily accessible compared to 26% of those from other countries.

The research was conducted at the University of Edinburgh Business School’s biennial Credit Risk and Credit Control Conference where 300 of the world’s expert practitioners and academics in credit came together to debate new research and innovations that will shape the way individuals and businesses can access, or be denied, credit in the coming months and years.